Run Expectancy 2010-2011

As a follow-up to my post on Beyond the Boxscore, here is an updated Run Expectancy table generated from the 2010-2011 seasons:

BASE STATE	0 Outs	1 Outs	2 Outs
“---”	0.497	0.264	0.105
“1--”	0.888	0.518	0.236
“-2-”	1.110	0.689	0.330
“--3”	1.385	0.936	0.349
“12-”	1.441	0.893	0.460
“1-3”	1.810	1.118	0.486
“-23”	1.995	1.402	0.605
“123”	2.397	1.536	0.799

wBABIP by COUNT

We are all aware that different counts offer different advantages and disadvantages in the pitcher-batter match-up. But just how much of an advantage is a 3-1 count compared to an 0-2 count? 

Obviously these two situations offer different odds of a walk or a strikeout occurring, but I wanted to concern myself exclusively with how the count affects the ball off the bat.

Adding linear weights to the traditional BABip formula is something I think could be useful for this. For instance, if we took the 'generic' wOBA weights for total bases used in The Book, and then borrowed the denominator from the traditional BABIP formula, but included homeruns:

(0.90*1B + 1.24*2B + 1.56*3B + 1.95*HR) / (AB - SO + SF)

This gives us a better estimate of not only if the ball was converted to an out or not, but perhaps how well the ball was hit, by adjusting for extra bases, as well. We can then apply the results to the average wBABIP in all counts for reference:

COUNT	wBABIP	+/- AVG	% of AVG
“3-0”	0.466	0.106	1.29
“3-1”	0.414	0.054	1.15
“2-0”	0.405	0.045	1.13
“1-0”	0.378	0.018	1.05
“3-2”	0.378	0.018	1.05
“2-1”	0.376	0.016	1.04
“0-0”	0.375	0.015	1.04
AVG	0.360	0	1.00
“1-1”	0.356	-0.004	0.99
“0-1”	0.342	-0.018	0.95
“2-2”	0.341	-0.019	0.95
“1-2”	0.328	-0.032	0.91
“0-2”	0.318	-0.042	0.88

... from 2002 - 2011, includes post-season, excludes all pitcher's PA.

BASE STATES

A look at how base-state effects the batter-pitcher match-up.
...
PITCHERS 

Base State	PA	FIP*	BABIP	K%	BB%	HR%	GB%	FB%	HR/FB	PPA	IBB%
"---”	1045868	4.36	0.294	17.9	7.6	2.8	43	36.9	10.7	3.84	0.01
“1--”	342077	4.27	0.311	15.9	6.9	2.8	41.6	37.8	10.4	3.84	0.01
"-2-”	167165	4.53	0.293	16.9	10.3	2.2	44.4	35.9	9.5	4.03	3.71
“12-”	135831	4.21	0.290	17.5	7.7	2.6	42.7	37.5	10.2	3.77	0.05
“--3”	55109	4.67	0.301	17	10.7	2.2	43.7	36.8	9.1	3.98	3.58
“1-3”	58709	4.34	0.307	15.9	7.7	2.5	43	37.2	9.5	3.78	0.55
“-23”	42529	4.42	0.297	16.6	9.4	1.9	44.5	36.5	8.9	4	10.88
“123”	48959	4.06	0.296	17.9	6.7	2.6	42.8	38	9.5	3.69	0

*where FIP here is the 'generic' version of the metric, using 3.2 as the constant, and 'PPA' is pitches per plate appearance.
...


I was inspired to run this query after Tom Tango at The Book Blog mentioned that a pitcher is much more likely to walk a batter with a runner on 2nd rather than 1st. This is affirmed by the chart-- with the difference a little over 3%.  Similarly, pitchers attempt to avoid contact in the '--3' and '-23' base states when first base is also vacant and HR/FB drops as the pitcher is apparently living ouside-the-zone a touch more than usual.


This is naturally an advantage for the hitter as he sees a bump in his OBP and OPS therefore, but not so much with his SLG percentage:

BATTERS 

Base State	PA	wOBA*	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
"---”	1045868	0.323	0.258	0.32	0.413	0.734
“1--”	342077	0.327	0.277	0.325	0.433	0.759
"-2-”	167165	0.311	0.252	0.36	0.394	0.754
“12-”	135831	0.312	0.254	0.314	0.405	0.718
“--3”	55109	0.323	0.277	0.373	0.429	0.802
“1-3”	58709	0.330	0.296	0.338	0.459	0.797
“-23”	42529	0.292	0.273	0.412	0.423	0.836
“123”	48959	0.319	0.281	0.316	0.445	0.761

...
*where wOBA is also the 'generic' version of the metric and does not include IBB or SB/CS.

It's also worth noting that BABIP is at it's highest when the first basemen is holding the runner. BABIP jumps about 17 points from bases empty to a state of "1--", but GB-BABip, in particular, sees a 20 point surge once right side of the infield is opened up:

BABIP

Base State	GB_BABIP	FB_BABIP	LD_BABIP	wBABIP*
"---”	0.216	0.195	0.707	0.356
“1--”	0.236	0.199	0.721	0.369
"-2-”	0.210	0.195	0.701	0.346
“12-”	0.207	0.196	0.710	0.350
“--3”	0.221	0.192	0.728	0.352
“1-3”	0.226	0.189	0.747	0.360
“-23”	0.220	0.189	0.725	0.348
“123”	0.219	0.187	0.730	0.353

*wBABIP is (0.90*1B + 1.24*2B + 1.56*3B + 1.95*HR) / (AB - SO + SF), 
GB excludes bunts, FB includes "pop ups"

I'm uncertain why GB-BAbip would be lowest of all the base states during "12-", but I'm open to suggestions. The 1B may be behind the runner in most of these situations, and the SS/2B may play deeper with the double play an option, but none of this should be an advantage over the bases empty state.

FB-BABip seems to fall slightly as the bases fill up, especially with a runner on third, which leads me to wonder if this is the effect of a slight shift in positioning as the outfielders feel less inclined to prevent the extra base hit rather than the bloop single.

I'm also going to speculate that LD-BABip reaches it's peak with both the 1B and the 3B holding the runners in a state of "1-3". Unlike ground balls, line drives are pulled more often than not (WAG), and with the majority of hitters being right-handed, the hot corner would see more LD-BIP than a first baseman.