Samardzija

Jeff Samardzija continues to prove his rebirth in 2012 is legitimate. After last Sunday's victory over the Brewers, he lowered his ERA to 2.94 with a dazzling 2.50 FIP and 2.90 xFIP. The obvious improvement in Samrdzija's 2012 season is his walk rate, which is currently at 7.9%-- a full 5% lower than his Career walk rate of 13.1%.


Dude. Did you catch that? I said, "5%".


Entering the 2012 season, the possibility of control-correction was looking grim for the Cub's oft-hyped 5th-round draft-pick after 169 career IP of the pure, lavish, indulgent wildness. But here we are, already 43 IP into 2012, and this new-found control has been sustained. If Samardzija is able to hold to that 5% cutback for an entire season (say, at least 150 IP), that would be an awesome and rare feat.

To provide some historical context to Samardzija's 2012, I queried all pitchers who lowered their walk rate by at least 5% for an entire season (150 IP) from their career rate (also with at least 150 IP).

Best BB% IMPROVERS, LIVE-BALL ERA

namefirst	namelast	IP Before	BB% Before	year	age	IP	BB%	KmBB	ciBB%
Billy	Pierce	456.3	15.18	1951	24	240.3	7.24	3.97	7.94
Duane	Pillette	309	12.67	1952	29	205.3	6.25	0.8	6.42
Bob	Bruce	522	9.85	1964	31	202.3	3.98	12.29	5.87
Tracy	Stallard	292.3	13.58	1964	26	225.7	7.72	4.77	5.86
Roy	Halladay	575.7	8.42	2003	26	266	2.99	16.06	5.43
Earl	Wilson	490.7	13.61	1964	29	202.3	8.27	10.53	5.34
Luke	Walker	358.3	13.21	1971	27	159.7	7.96	4.95	5.25
George	Earnshaw	709	11.58	1931	31	281.7	6.39	6.56	5.19
George	Pipgras	215	12.79	1928	28	300.7	7.62	2.66	5.17
Bob	Feller	488.3	16.57	1939	20	296.7	11.42	8.37	5.15
Dolly	Gray	151.7	12.54	1925	27	203.7	7.4	2	5.14
Dennis	Eckersley	386	10.4	1977	22	247.3	5.37	13.62	5.03
Randy	Johnson	818	14.5	1993	29	255.3	9.49	20.04	5.01
Lefty	Grove	197	14.43	1926	26	258	9.42	8.68	5.01

where ciBB% is "change in" walk rate

The Doc jumps out at me, immediately, as the most recent example. Every now and then we are reminded of the fact that Roy Halladay, the pitcher of the decade, was once mortal. Not only was he mortal, but he was a mortal being who was awful at pitching. In 2003 he had dropped his walk rate to a puny 2.9%, a full 5.43% below his career rate at the time. However, the real improvement for Doc had begun a season prior to that, when he had lowered his free passes to just 6.2%. So, while utterly remarkable, I would suggest Samardzija's improvement would be the quickest, at least, in recent memory.


Randy Johnson, on the other hand, simultaneously improved his walk rate 5% off his career rate and off his prior season's rate. In 1993 Johnson dropped his free passes to a respectable 9.5% from a Kenny Powersian 15.6% in 1992, famously after a conversation with Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan. Only 7 of our group of 14 pitchers have ever done this:


QUICKEST BB% IMPROVERS, LIVE-BALL ERA

namefirst	namelast	IP_Career	BB% Career	Y1	Y1 IP	Y1 BB%	Y2	Y2 age	Y2 IP	Y2 BB%	ciBB% Career- Y2	ciBB% Y1-Y2
Duane	Pillette	309	12.67	1951	191	13.2	1952	29	205.3	6.25	6.42	6.95
Billy	Pierce	456.3333	15.18	1950	219.3	14.01	1951	24	240.3	7.24	7.94	6.77
Randy	Johnson	818	14.5	1992	210.3	15.62	1993	29	255.3	9.49	5.01	6.13
Bob	Feller	488.3333	16.57	1938	277.7	16.67	1939	20	296.7	11.42	5.15	5.25
Dolly	Gray	151.6667	12.54	1924	151.7	12.54	1925	27	203.7	7.4	5.14	5.14
Luke	Walker	358.3333	13.21	1970	163	13.01	1971	27	159.7	7.96	5.25	5.05
Lefty	Grove	197	14.43	1925	197	14.43	1926	26	258	9.42	5.01	5.01

...
Could Jeff Samardzija be the 8th?