Tuesday, May 8, 2012

LaHairs

Bryan LaHair continues to mash on the north side of Chicago. He hit his 8th home run of the young season last night, and has accrued so far an impressive 16 wRAA (per Fangraphs) with a slash line of .388/ .479/ .800.

This is all very impressive on its own, but what really makes LaHair's scorching start to the season so notable is that this is his first full season and he's already 29 years old.

I was curious about the best seasons from similar late-bloomers and set up a query that only included players who also saw less than 150 PA before their age 28 season. This is the top 10.

Best Late Bloomer Seasons  -->
First Last Year Age Team wRAA wOBA BA OBP SLG OPS
Lefty O'Doul 1929 32 PHI 78.8 0.493 0.398 0.465 0.622 1.087
Lefty O'Doul 1930 33 PHI 57.9 0.473 0.383 0.453 0.604 1.057
Lefty O'Doul 1932 35 BRO 55.4 0.444 0.368 0.423 0.555 0.978
Melvin Mora 2004 32 BAL 48.4 0.424 0.34 0.419 0.562 0.981
Earl Webb 1931 33 BOS 43.3 0.422 0.333 0.404 0.528 0.932
Bob Cerv 1958 32 KC1 41.2 0.413 0.305 0.371 0.592 0.963
Hank Sauer 1954 37 CHN 39.7 0.42 0.288 0.375 0.563 0.938
Mike Easler 1984 33 BOS 39.4 0.395 0.313 0.376 0.516 0.892
Hank Sauer 1952 35 CHN 38.8 0.407 0.27 0.361 0.531 0.892
Davey Lopes 1979 34 LAN 33.3 0.39 0.265 0.372 0.464 0.836
....

Here is the top 100 (google doc).

Lefty O'Doul, as you may or may not know, began his career as a pitcher, but was forced to reconsider his job description after developing 'sore arm' early on in his career. Lefty re-emerged with the New York Giants as a 31 year-old and hit for a .388 wOBA in limited Playing Time. In 1929, his first full-season, posted one of the better offensive seasons in baseball history (my wRAA has his age-32 season at 48th best in the live-ball era).

Melvin Mora stands out as the most recent of all the top 10 late-bloomers. He is trailed by onetime teammate Luke Scott, who's recent 2010 season was 20th overall with 27.8 wRAA.

I'll admit to having no idea who Mike Easler was, and a quick glimpse of his player page suggests his 1984 season was an outlier. 

Davey Lopes I certainly do remember, however, I don't necessarily remember him as a late-bloomer. Especially since so much of Lopes's value was in his speed. In his age-34 season, which qualifies here, Davey stole 44 bases. It was this sort of invincible quality Lopes displayed on the field that led him to a fine career (46 WAR), despite receiving his first full season at the late age of 28.

In fact Lopes is 3rd overall amongst all the Lahairs in Career wRAA right behind O'Doul and Hank Sauer.

LaHAIRS, MOST CAREER wRAA -->
First Last Debut wRAA_C
Lefty O'Doul 04/29/19 254.5
Hank Sauer 09/09/41 199
Davey Lopes 09/22/72 165.4
George McQuinn 04/14/36 147.8
George Stone 04/20/03 146.7
Matt Stairs 05/29/92 143.8
Mike Easler 09/05/73 105.2
Solly Hemus 04/27/49 103.2
Ken Phelps 09/20/80 102.2
Bobby Estalella 09/07/35 94.9
 ... 

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