He's entering his age 25 season, coming off a 2011 with a 19.9 K% a 6.3 BB%, and a 51.5 GB%. It's a thing of beauty, really-- seeing those factors all aligned at a very common 'peak' age. There is a quietly robust kinetic quality to it all.
Obviously, being poised for a break-out and actually breaking-out are separated by a continent of x-factors, and estimating such a jump based off of just 4 values is absurd, but just play along for a moment.
Take a glance at starting pitchers with similar numbers* since 1992 in at least their age 24-26 season, and how they fared immediately afterward.
NIESE COMPS
Not a bad list, am I right?
Starting from the top we see all-star after all-star until we hit Glendon Rusch. Rusch did flash these signs of breakout potential in two back-to-back seasons early in his career and then quickly receded into the shadows of history. Andy Benes continued to post good but never great numbers, he did break-out, so to speak, much later at age 29 with a +5 WAR season. Eric Milton and Steve Woodard's seasons were undoubtedly their respective peaks, and probably are a good indication of what Niese's floor looks like.
JDanger -
ReplyDeleteSaw some of your comments over on FG, and read more here, obviously. I know you're already running a blog of your own, but do you have any interest in the following?
http://www.fangraphs.com/forums/topic.php?id=21607
They deleted my post, which I sort of expected I guess. Here is what I wrote:
ReplyDeleteHello fellow FanGraphs members,
I am posting to see if some members of this community are interested in writing about baseball from a sabermetric and scouting (when possible) perspective.
Although impossible to set forth any exact idea on the construction of the website, any effort would have to start with someone having some web developing and design experience. I am familiar with WordPress, but am a little out of my element beyond that.
Of course, writers and editors understanding the statistics used on FanGraphs and Baseball Reference are also critical. I know my way around SPSS and can run, for example, a regression analysis, but am not an expert (nor must one be an expert to meaningfully contribute). Creativity and reasoning are two qualities that, although perhaps obvious, would serve our venture well.
My strength lies in writing and editing. I served as Editor-in-Chief of a legal publication and have substantive writing experience, although not specifically in the baseball/blog sphere. I would be happy to share in greater detail my strengths with those interested if they feel necessary.
I realize the internet is littered with abandoned blogs having great aspirations. I also know that many writers get paid for their work (although the remuneration is perhaps a pittance). I can't promise a fate different than the former or riches/fame comparable to the latter, but I do enjoy baseball, talking and writing about baseball, and working in a team environment. Mostly, I'd aspire to publish articles on convenience and in detail, rather than adhering to a strict publication schedule. So, it's just a way to supplement daily life, not life itself.
Thanks all, and I appreciate FanGraphs' contributions to the field.
I saw your comment on the Lincecum post, and rather than reply there, I thought I'd just come to the source.
ReplyDeleteI've been reading FG since just before Jay Bruce got called up in '08. There are a lot of talented commenters there, and thought there was an opportunity to deliver additional meaningful content if there was a good group put together. So that was the motive. I guess there are other saber-outlets to see if people want to rally from, but I can't leverage my observations from over the past several years outside of FG.
Your blog is real quality - I enjoyed going through some of the recent posts last evening.