Run%

This is something I've been wanting to do for a while now, but just never got around to it. For the Bases Empty Bunts post, I wanted to get a feel for how fast Lee Mazzilli was, considering how effective he was at bunting for a hit. In order to do this, I wrote a code for every time a base runner had second or third base open immediately in front of him. From there we can get a more accurate estimate of how many opportunities (Opp) that runner had, how often he attempted to steal (Run%) and how often he was successful (SB%).

This system only includes double-steals when the runner in question was the lead runner. I also excluded all opportunities and attempts to steal home.

Of the top 100 base stealers since 1950, here are those who ran at least 20% of the time:

ALL-TIME RUN% LEADERS MIN 245 SB

First	Last	Opps	Atts	SBs	RUN%	SB%
Vince	Coleman	2955	929	759	0.31	0.82
Omar	Moreno	2429	664	485	0.27	0.73
Miguel	Dilone	1324	345	267	0.26	0.77
Ron	LeFlore	2449	592	451	0.24	0.76
Rickey	Henderson	7274	1752	1419	0.24	0.81
Otis	Nixon	3527	816	629	0.23	0.77
Lou	Brock	5430	1254	948	0.23	0.76
Jose	Reyes	1867	418	333	0.22	0.8
Bill	North	2482	554	394	0.22	0.71
Gary	Redus	1868	401	319	0.21	0.8
Frank	Taveras	1887	403	298	0.21	0.74
Tom	Goodwin	2250	478	363	0.21	0.76
Cesar	Cedeno	3402	719	543	0.21	0.76
Gary	Pettis	2152	454	350	0.21	0.77
Julio	Cruz	2005	419	342	0.21	0.82
Carl	Crawford	2458	496	406	0.2	0.82
Bert	Campaneris	4213	844	647	0.2	0.77
Willie	Wilson	4131	809	676	0.2	0.84
Scott	Podsednik	2079	407	303	0.2	0.74

So Coleman is #1, big whoop. And naturally Ricky Henderson is there, Lou Brock and even Willie Wilson. But wanted I really wanted to see is the Miguel Dilone types. And as you can see, I got my wish. There are a handful of guys on this list that I am not familiar with.

Dilone posted a career OPS of .648, and exceeded an OPS+ over 100 just once. That was his fantastic 1980 season in which he hit .341 /.375 /.432 with 61 stolen bases, after which he promptly returned to replacement level.

Morbid curiosity leads me to wonder which of the top 100 were the worst at stealing bases, and how often they attempted it. I found 7 players that were caught stealing more than 30% of the time. Of that group, Luis Polonia ran the most often, at 18%:

LOWEST SB% MIN 245 CAREER SB

First	Last	Opps	Atts	SBs	RUN%	SB%
Rod	Carew	5138	510	335	0.1	0.66
Pat	Kelly	2395	363	246	0.15	0.68
Brett	Butler	5022	804	550	0.16	0.68
Ray	Lankford	2658	361	248	0.14	0.69
Mark	McLemore	3401	375	258	0.11	0.69
Luis	Polonia	2568	462	319	0.18	0.69
Claudell	Washington	3008	435	301	0.14	0.69

Does a Rod Carew as #1 surprise you? It sure as hell surprised me. Wasn't he the guy back in the day? I mean even the Beastie Boys are all about him. And just as I was really starting to like Brett Butler from previous posts, he shows up here. I think it would be best if I just moved along and forgot this whole thing.

Shortly after I ran this query, I asked a few people how often they would have guessed Ricky Henderson attempted to steal if he had an open base in front of him, and nearly everyone said about 75%. It's sort of amazing the sort of impression Ricky has left on us. It really is one of complete and utter fear.

So possibly, Ricky ran much more often in is peak?


RICKY HENDERSON RUN% BY SEASON

Age	Year	Opps	Atts	SBs	RUN%	SB%	RUN% cumulative
20	1979	202	44	33	0.218	0.750	0.218
21	1980	462	119	95	0.258	0.798	0.245
22	1981	303	82	60	0.271	0.732	0.253
23	1982	391	166	127	0.425	0.765	0.303
24	1983	328	127	108	0.387	0.850	0.319
25	1984	333	84	66	0.252	0.786	0.308
26	1985	343	89	79	0.260	0.888	0.301
27	1986	307	105	87	0.342	0.829	0.306
28	1987	212	47	39	0.222	0.830	0.300
29	1988	345	106	93	0.307	0.877	0.300
30	1989	356	101	87	0.284	0.861	0.299
31	1990	337	81	70	0.240	0.864	0.294
32	1991	300	74	57	0.247	0.770	0.290
33	1992	280	59	48	0.211	0.814	0.285
34	1993	370	65	55	0.176	0.846	0.277
35	1994	225	29	22	0.129	0.759	0.271
36	1995	220	42	32	0.191	0.762	0.267
37	1996	330	52	37	0.158	0.712	0.261
38	1997	269	52	44	0.193	0.846	0.258
39	1998	346	78	65	0.225	0.833	0.256
40	1999	346	57	43	0.165	0.754	0.251
41	2000	277	48	36	0.173	0.750	0.248
42	2001	231	32	25	0.139	0.781	0.244
43	2002	124	10	8	0.081	0.800	0.242
44	2003	37	3	3	0.081	1.000	0.241

As it turns out, in his age-23 season Ricky ran a maddening 43% of the time there was an open base ahead of him. We can also see that Ricky's career RUN% is severely dragged down by his later years. For a seven year stretch from '82-'89 Henderson was consistently running over 30% of the time. Had he not maintained the offensive production to sustain playing time into his twilight years, his RUN% would have been just as high as Vince Coleman. (Coleman, incidentally, never ran more than 38% of the time in a single season.)

Where does Ricky's 43 RUN%  in his 1982 season rank among he top-100 then? Second.

HIGHEST RUN% SEASONS

First	Last	Year	Opps	Atts	SBs	RUN%	SB%
Eric	Davis	1986	208	91	80	0.438	0.879
Rickey	Henderson	1982	391	166	127	0.425	0.765
Tim	Raines	1981	203	82	70	0.404	0.854
Omar	Moreno	1980	318	128	95	0.403	0.742
Vince	Coleman	1985	346	134	109	0.387	0.813
Rickey	Henderson	1983	328	127	108	0.387	0.850
Ron	LeFlore	1980	297	114	96	0.384	0.842
Frank	Taveras	1977	230	88	70	0.383	0.796
Vince	Coleman	1986	316	120	107	0.380	0.892
Vince	Coleman	1988	306	106	80	0.346	0.755

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