Ray Fosse and Overweight Inter-Galactical Conquest

Ray Fosse was eighth on the MLBN's 'could have been' list, and the rationale was that Fosse's career was on the fast track to super-stardom had it not been for a collision at the plate with Pete Rose in the 1970 all-star game. The argument that Fosse had this degree of upside is built around his age 23 season, one that clearly stands out historically.

TOP SEASONS BY CATCHERS BEFORE AGE 24, SORTED BY wRAA:

Obviously this is an impressive slate of names including some notable Hall of Famers in Johnny Bench and notable hairdos in Gary Carter. We also have two active stars in McCann and Mauer well on their way to very impressive careers (at least). But what I found most interesting is that Buster Posey's 2010 season shows up as the closest comp. With the sort of excitement that surrounded Posey's breakout season still fresh in memory, I can only presume that same level of hype followed Fosse's 1970 season just as much. And now,  in an eerily bizarre coincidence, Posey has fallen victim to his own career-threatening injury, only a season removed from his break-out, casting his previously lofty expectations into doubt.

Naturally then, I'm led to wonder what this says about our interpretation of history? If Posey never again reaches the level of play he did in 2010 will he show up in future 'could have been' lists? Forty years is a long time, enough time certainly for our memories to inflate the mystique of Posey's season.

And how will we, knowledgeable baseball fanatics, then respond to such an interpretation of history? Will we assure the next generation that Posey was the second-coming of Johnny Bench? Or will we very soundly temper our romanticism of the past? Or will we do neither, and simply lay down and accept our fate as the primary food supply for the tyrannical, obese androids? (I mean, think about it. I imagine they find humans delicious and I imagine that becomes somewhat of a problem for them. Because I certainly imagine they don't get to the gym as often as they should. And then you just have a bunch of overweight, out-of-shape robots going around telling you how "amazing" Buster Posey could have been. Oh man, I don't know about you guys but I'll punch a fat robot right in the face and not think twice about it.)

I did some "research" on Fosse, and by that I mean I looked up his wikipedia page,  and even the nameless, faceless author readily admits "the injury is often incorrectly cited as what caused the downfall of Fosse's career," (but in fairness the author then goes on to cite his second-half batting average as an indication that Fosse hadn't lost a step after the collision). But, it can't be ignored, that Fosse's pre/post All-Star Game split certainly does paint quite a bleak picture:

RAY FOSSE 1970
 

Now, we're all aware we can play games with these splits, and in fact there was a month long stretch, well before the break, which is the alleged drop-off point, where Fosse hit for a pale and sickly .610 OPS. But for kicks, check out the consistency of his batted ball profile before and after the incident. His BAbip remains the same, and his GB/FB ratios remain intact. Clearly, what jumps out here is the colossal plunge Fosse's HR/FB takes. And with that plunge, so went the power, and so Fosse's career.

RAY FOSSE 


But unlike Posey, once we dig a bit deeper into Fosse's past we find that there was certainly no indication of the sort of power he exhibited early in 1970 in any of his previous seasons in the minors.
Per B-Ref:

RAY FOSSE MINORS

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB
1965	18	Reading	EL	AA	CLE	55	192	178	19	39	3	1	3	11	0	0	14	40	.219	.276	.298	.574	53
1966	19	Reno	CALL	A	CLE	116		418		127	15	5	1						.304		.371		155
1967	20	Portland	PCL	AAA	CLE	75	228	211	18	55	8	4	2	28	0	1	11	43	.261	.302	.365	.667	77		2	3	1
1968	21	Portland	PCL	AAA	CLE	103	372	339	44	102	16	0	9	42	3	2	25	47	.301	.355	.428	.783	145		4	3	1
4 Seasons						349	1210	1146	81	323	42	10	15	81	3	3	50	130	.282	.315	.375	.690	430		6	6	2
AAA (2 seasons)				AAA		178	600	550	62	157	24	4	11	70	3	3	36	90	.285	.335	.404	.739	222		6	6	2
A (1 season)				A		116	418	418		127	15	5	1						.304	.304	.371	.675	155
AA (1 season)				AA		55	192	178	19	39	3	1	3	11	0	0	14	40	.219	.276	.298	.574	53

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/15/2012.

It certainly provides for an interesting narrative, but the the romantic notion that the collision with Charlie Hustle was in fact the catalyst for Fosse's drop in production is likely just a stretch. And in 2055, I will have no problem downplaying the upside of a one Buster Posey right to a robot's face. In fact, I'll look him right in the synthetic eye and tell him to seriously consider a gym membership. And don't wear horizontal stripes, either, I would definitely say that.