I count about 6 duds to 9 gems.
Conclusive evidence that hot streaks exist in the playoffs...
Psych.
Here are players who similarly hit 3 HR in the LCS and their OPS in the subsequent World Series:
The results here are about 50/50.
EDIT:
Something about this post has been nagging me, so I'm going to edit it even if it's almost 5 months later.
Simply assigning each performance as stud or dud doesn't cut it. What needs to be done here is a comparison to each series performance with that player's regular season numbers, because if a hitter is truly 'locked in" he is by definition performing above is typical talent level. Some of these series heroes were good hitters to begin with, and we should keep that in mind when evaluating their performances.
So I'm adding a new chart that includes each player's Regular Season OPS (RS OPS) and how that number differs from their CS OPS and WS OPS. It's completely and totally unfair to Larry, who is long gone by now. And it's especially unfair because the the new data severely hurts his case, and he is not here to defend it. But it's got to be done, my brothers and sisters. It's got to be done by god, in the pursuit of truth.
PLAYERS WITH AT LEAST 3 HR IN A DIVISION SERIES
....
And the those who hit 3 HR in the Championship series:
PLAYERS WITH AT LEAST 3 HR IN THE LCS
You can cross Alfonzo, Surhoff, and Grissom off the list because they don't fit the criteria I laid out of hitting home runs in three separate games.
ReplyDeleteThat leaves two duds, nine studs, and one decent effort.
Psych.
Hey Larry! Up high for being commenter #1! Is it because 3 HR's in two games is not yet a streak, but 3 HR's in 3 separate games is the point at which a streak becomes legitimate?
ReplyDeleteThat was my definition of hot when asked to provide one. I think homering in three of five LDS games is enough of a sign to show that a player really is locked in for a whole series, whereas homering three times over two games shows more that the player was locked in for the individual game.
ReplyDeleteI think a player who has homered in at least 3 of 5 LDS games has demonstrated he's pretty hot. Those players have also tended to have a good LCS.
If we were talking about Rayburn replacing Delmon for an 80-game span, I'd agree with the premise. But replacing him for a seven-game series, after Delmon has demonstrated he's hot, makes it a more difficult argument for me to believe.